RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
160 equipos de expertos tratando de predecir el camino de la vida. Resultado: fracaso absoluto. Un mensaje para los expertos que saben recomendar cómo vivir. https://t.co/n3sXalOB4m
RT @eollion: What happens when machine learning does not corroborate the results from our classic (parametric regressions) tools? A great a…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @groby: I'm not sure if this says more about the problem at hand, social sciences, machine learning, or the general mental malaise that…
RT @groby: I'm not sure if this says more about the problem at hand, social sciences, machine learning, or the general mental malaise that…
I'm not sure if this says more about the problem at hand, social sciences, machine learning, or the general mental malaise that causes otherwise healthy people to utter the sentence "I know, we'll just apply machine learning" at every opportunity.
RT @jasonrhody: Hugely important work that brings necessary context -- and caution -- to using algorithms to predict life outcomes. Lots to…
RT @geomblog: This paper provides a strong argument for the futility of predicting life outcomes even with rich data sets and a variety of…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @ridhikash07: How well can we predict life outcomes? What are the implications of the (un)predictability of life outcomes for policy and…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
Appears as if models to predict life outcomes only work in @WestworldHBO and should therefore better be kept out of court rooms
RT @JuliaJYan: Well-written and thought-provoking. Why wouldn't the algorithms work well? Are life outcomes truly chaotic and unpredictable…
RT @geomblog: This paper provides a strong argument for the futility of predicting life outcomes even with rich data sets and a variety of…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
<<... the simple benchmark model with only a few predictors was only slightly worse than the most accurate submission, and it actually outperformed many of the submissions>> https://t.co/QB1nru4XnM
Super interesting
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @ahc: “Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very a…
RT @ridhikash07: How well can we predict life outcomes? What are the implications of the (un)predictability of life outcomes for policy and…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
https://t.co/WZP0LtDw3R Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration. Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes, such as a child’s grade point average and whether a family would be evicted from the
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @ridhikash07: How well can we predict life outcomes? What are the implications of the (un)predictability of life outcomes for policy and…
How well can we predict life outcomes? What are the implications of the (un)predictability of life outcomes for policy and social science theory? Honoured to have contributed to the Fragile Families Challenge to tackle these big questions. Great thread by
Is this such a surprise? It's hard enough to predict who will get cancer even with entire genomes and a mass of information about other exposures. When it comes to outcomes that rely on human social interactions I'm actually rather glad that the complexity
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @soizicpenicaud: Etude américaine à lire sur les enjeux de prédiction dans les politiques publiques (aides sociales, justice). 160 (!!…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
Interesting results about predicting life outcomes - it appears not to work. Maybe we should consider psychohistory
Well-written and thought-provoking. Why wouldn't the algorithms work well? Are life outcomes truly chaotic and unpredictable? Would the results improve if better measurements and (even) larger samples are used? How well can humans predict the life outcomes
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @kph3k: The results of the Fragile Families Challenge are essential reading for anyone who has been following debates about polygenic sc…
This paper provides a strong argument for the futility of predicting life outcomes even with rich data sets and a variety of prediction tools.
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
Hugely important work that brings necessary context -- and caution -- to using algorithms to predict life outcomes. Lots to explore here. Grateful for the work it represents & glad that a @ssrc_org research workshop provided a supportive environment fo
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
Interesting! And also a good sign for lifetime socio-economic mobility (presumably).
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
“For policymakers considering using predictive models, these results raise a number of concerns”
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @kph3k: The results of the Fragile Families Challenge are essential reading for anyone who has been following debates about polygenic sc…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
Life, as it turns out, may be statistically uunpredictable. https://t.co/OgSABRjCsN
RT @ahc: “Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very a…
“Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate....” Very significant (non-)result. Build your life and work on promises, not predictions. (via @NAChristakis) https:
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @Kelle_Parsons: So fascinating - a good reminder of the limits of predictive models on complex topics.
Birth of Rehoboam?
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
For those of us who were blessed for some part of our lives not to have known a sociopath, please hear me. You aren’t different. Absence of empathy and malignant narcissism aren’t selective. They prey on empaths. Every day you or we fail to kick them to th
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…