RT @danilobzdok: Prediction is hard, especially about the future! "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes...no one…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @JennieBrand1: Glad to be involved with this effort
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
A proper test of predictive accuracy - with sobering results...
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @danilobzdok: Prediction is hard, especially about the future! "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes...no one…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @danilobzdok: Prediction is hard, especially about the future! "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes...no one…
RT @kph3k: The results of the Fragile Families Challenge are essential reading for anyone who has been following debates about polygenic sc…
RT @danilobzdok: Prediction is hard, especially about the future! "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes...no one…
RT @danilobzdok: Prediction is hard, especially about the future! "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes...no one…
Don’t show this to your teenagers, else: “Muuum, don’t tell me what do to! According to Salganik et al 2020 PNAS your internal model of what colouring my hair pink & green will result in in terms of life outcomes is very likely to be incorrect.”
RT @danilobzdok: Prediction is hard, especially about the future! "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes...no one…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @Dorialexander: Un article vraiment intéressant sur l'épistémologie du machine learning : les modèles prédictifs ne parviennent pas à sa…
RT @danilobzdok: Prediction is hard, especially about the future! "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes...no one…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @danilobzdok: Prediction is hard, especially about the future! "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes...no one…
RT @danilobzdok: Prediction is hard, especially about the future! "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes...no one…
Prediction is hard, especially about the future! "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes...no one made very accurate predictions." https://t.co/8mGddiV6fe @KordingLab @neuro_data @MaartenvSmeden @tyrell_turing @russpoldrack @ogri
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @Dorialexander: Un article vraiment intéressant sur l'épistémologie du machine learning : les modèles prédictifs ne parviennent pas à sa…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @ahc: “Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very a…
RT @ahc: “Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very a…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
Great study and thread on the limits of predictive algorithms
Bookmark predictive algorithms I wonder if they tested for any common prediction issues (thinking algorithmic bias)
Extremely relevant paper. Also for #HR, #OB and #WorkPsych research where we focus solely on understanding but often forget to examine actual predictiveness ... #PeopleAnalytics
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
Prediction competitions becoming more popular in social sciences. In this case, all teams fail to predict GPA based on background variables. Intuitively, I like this approach but have a couple Qs, beginning with whether social scientists should even care a
Interesting project, results & thread Some important societal outcomes cannot be predicted but they can be better understood ... the upshot is that policy needs to move away from a focus on unattainable prediction & toward more sophisticated approa
understanding the distinction between the complex and complicated domains can be important for leaders and decision makers #complexity
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
Worthwhile thread about how 160 scientist teams couldn't predict family outcomes given background data and training outcomes. Huge implications for socioeconomic policy.
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @Dorialexander: Un article vraiment intéressant sur l'épistémologie du machine learning : les modèles prédictifs ne parviennent pas à sa…
Un article vraiment intéressant sur l'épistémologie du machine learning : les modèles prédictifs ne parviennent pas à saisir une réalité sociale complexe malgré des données très détaillées (ou peut-être à cause de...).
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @DanielOberski: This is a very important paper, for two reasons: (1) the results (see tweet); (2) it's one of the few existing social sc…
This is a very important paper, for two reasons: (1) the results (see tweet); (2) it's one of the few existing social science studies conducted in the "common task framework"(see https://t.co/0Cy7g3zKjw) - excellent job by @msalganik and 111 others!
No, your algorithm can't predict my future
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @future_of_AI: Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration https://t.co/N6a8ee9pdp #AI #Research…
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration https://t.co/N6a8ee9pdp #AI #Research via @johnplattml
Trying to predict is hard even with huge and comprehensive datasets. This is why in the time of COVID not all models should be treated equally. Infectious disease researchers are better able to comprehend biases they will include in their models. https
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @kph3k: The results of the Fragile Families Challenge are essential reading for anyone who has been following debates about polygenic sc…
RT @ridhikash07: How well can we predict life outcomes? What are the implications of the (un)predictability of life outcomes for policy and…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @manos_tsakiris: 100s of researchers tried to predict 6 life outcomes (v. relevant for criminal justice). They used machine-learning met…
RT @manos_tsakiris: 100s of researchers tried to predict 6 life outcomes (v. relevant for criminal justice). They used machine-learning met…
RT @ridhikash07: How well can we predict life outcomes? What are the implications of the (un)predictability of life outcomes for policy and…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
Glad to be involved with this effort
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @KimBoller1: Looking forward to digging into these #FragileFamilies Birth cohort papers asking about longitudinal predictive modeling wi…
RT @KimBoller1: Looking forward to digging into these #FragileFamilies Birth cohort papers asking about longitudinal predictive modeling wi…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @KimBoller1: Looking forward to digging into these #FragileFamilies Birth cohort papers asking about longitudinal predictive modeling wi…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @KimBoller1: Looking forward to digging into these #FragileFamilies Birth cohort papers asking about longitudinal predictive modeling wi…
RT @KimBoller1: Looking forward to digging into these #FragileFamilies Birth cohort papers asking about longitudinal predictive modeling wi…
RT @KimBoller1: Looking forward to digging into these #FragileFamilies Birth cohort papers asking about longitudinal predictive modeling wi…
Looking forward to digging into these #FragileFamilies Birth cohort papers asking about longitudinal predictive modeling with data used in gobs of dissertations and papers paving tenure pathways for many scholars. The quick answer—not so predictive. Oops.
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…