RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @geomblog: This paper provides a strong argument for the futility of predicting life outcomes even with rich data sets and a variety of…
RT @lisalibrarian: "These researchers used machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, and they drew on a vast dataset that was pain…
"These researchers used machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, and they drew on a vast dataset that was painstakingly collected by social scientists over 15 y. However, no one made very accurate predictions."
RT @ahc: “Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very a…
RT @ahc: “Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very a…
How about we don’t use ML to predict social outcomes. Seriously, would be problematic if accurate. And it won’t be accurate. 👇
RT @geomblog: This paper provides a strong argument for the futility of predicting life outcomes even with rich data sets and a variety of…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
I have a lot of thoughts on this paper.
I RT'd the thread earlier, but now I've read the paper &I'd urge anyone in the admissions universe to read it. tl;dr: we might be good at making predictions about a group, but we are quite bad at making predictions about individuals in that group. h
RT @kph3k: The results of the Fragile Families Challenge are essential reading for anyone who has been following debates about polygenic sc…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
Very interesting work
This is a great thread.
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration: "...researchers must reconcile the idea that they understand life trajectories with the fact that none of the predictions were very accurate." https://t.co/dmEsx2osJ6
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
From my #Open list: Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration | PNAS https://t.co/bpVWzB0jar, see more https://t.co/YOW49pBcdz
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
😟
RT @soizicpenicaud: Etude américaine à lire sur les enjeux de prédiction dans les politiques publiques (aides sociales, justice). 160 (!!…
RT @soizicpenicaud: Etude américaine à lire sur les enjeux de prédiction dans les politiques publiques (aides sociales, justice). 160 (!!…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @juliomayol: #mustread
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @kph3k: The results of the Fragile Families Challenge are essential reading for anyone who has been following debates about polygenic sc…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @manos_tsakiris: 100s of researchers tried to predict 6 life outcomes (v. relevant for criminal justice). They used machine-learning met…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
Super interesting thread and paper on machine learning poorly predicting outcomes, even with high quality data.
RT @geomblog: This paper provides a strong argument for the futility of predicting life outcomes even with rich data sets and a variety of…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
"In other words, the submissions were much better at predicting each other than at predicting the truth." Yeee-ouch.
This is an information dense thread, but it comes down to this... The issue: EVERY major police agency / probation department uses predictive algorithms to allocate resources. The conclusion: They suck.
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration | PNAS https://t.co/WtJkweknjM
RT @manos_tsakiris: 100s of researchers tried to predict 6 life outcomes (v. relevant for criminal justice). They used machine-learning met…
100s of researchers tried to predict 6 life outcomes (v. relevant for criminal justice). They used machine-learning methods & drew on a vast dataset collected by over 15 y. However, no one made very accurate predictions | PNAS https://t.co/BV4jmb11Hs
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
"These results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences."
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @andre_spicer: 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dat…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @ElenaForsythe: “Build your life and work on promises, not predictions.” This gets me *wildly* excited— @Aspen_Group business model is…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @EvolvingJuan: Life, as it turns out, may be statistically uunpredictable. https://t.co/OgSABRjCsN
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
Fascinating thread on the failure of ML to predict important outcomes in fragile Lange
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
Neither deep nor disturbing for anyone in the humanities. Disciplinary limitations are invitations for interdisciplinary collaboration.
RT @juliomayol: #mustread
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @kph3k: The results of the Fragile Families Challenge are essential reading for anyone who has been following debates about polygenic sc…
RT @profewall: Your life is not a trajectory. https://t.co/4YyXl5zRX6
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @ahc: “Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very a…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @msalganik: If hundreds of scientists created predictive algorithms with high-quality data, how well would the best predict life outcome…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @andre_spicer: 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dat…
160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods, the best predictions were not very accurate https://t.co/IT55j1klul
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
RT @NAChristakis: Deep and disturbing paper about social science, the vagaries of life, and our sense of control: Measuring the predictabil…
"researchers must reconcile the idea that they understand life trajectories with the fact that none of the predictions were very accurate" Could we be mistaken? No, it's the children who are wrong!