RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
I can't wait to see the orange site's comments on this one...
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
Que no os vendan la moto de Minority Report.
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @amlivemon: I keep pressing that trying to model human behavior and infectious spread with different human interactions is not as easy a…
13000 features per family!!!
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
Det är svårt predicera olika resultat, i sjukvård och i annat. Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration https://t.co/G45Y0qY8Vf
RT @amlivemon: I keep pressing that trying to model human behavior and infectious spread with different human interactions is not as easy a…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
TRY ASKING THE KIDS THEMSELVES
I keep pressing that trying to model human behavior and infectious spread with different human interactions is not as easy as statisticians claim
RT @BaldingsWorld: Note
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
Note
"Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to predict 6 life outcomes of at-risk children using 13000 features/family. The most accurate models did only slightly better than random." h
Predicting is difficult, especially when it is about the future 😉(usually attributed to Niels Bohr, see below)
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
RT @random_walker: Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to pre…
Predicting the future is hard, whether you use a magic 8-ball or machine learning. New in PNAS—160 teams competed to predict 6 life outcomes of at-risk children using 13000 features per family. The most accurate models did only slightly better than random.
RT @catarinamaia: Machine learning models fail to predict life outcomes. “For policymakers considering using predictive models in settings…
RT @chris_bail: 1/n Can machine learning solve social science problems? This unprecedented study led by @msalganik and dozens of co-authors…
RT @LondonLease: Causes and effects that lead to different social outcomes - AI still can't help https://t.co/p7Sd3Nh7W2
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration https://t.co/TQJIbd3Z10
A new study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences casts doubt on how effective this approach really is. Three sociologists at Princeton University asked hundreds of researchers to predict six li…https://t.co/oIhw90QHTP
None of the researchers got even close to a reasonable level of accuracy, regardless of whether they used simple statistics or cutting-edge machine learning 🤔 Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration | PNAS https:
"Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes, such as a child’s grade point average... These researchers used machine-learning methods optimized for prediction. However, no one made very accurate predictions." https://t.co/WcDTg0DkuX
RT @schneiderleonid: "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes, such as a child’s grade point average and whether a f…
It looks like we're missing something... https://t.co/LCKttXhvrP
RT @schneiderleonid: "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes, such as a child’s grade point average and whether a f…
Machine learning models fail to predict life outcomes. “For policymakers considering using predictive models in settings such as criminal justice and child-protective services, these results raise a number of concerns.” AI is not the holy grail. https://t.
RT @schneiderleonid: "Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict six life outcomes, such as a child’s grade point average and whether a f…
Causes and effects that lead to different social outcomes - AI still can't help https://t.co/p7Sd3Nh7W2
AI for family planning is disastrous. Are they dreaming of a Tinder-like app to match parents and children? Assimilating indigenous population is still happening, they rebrand it "open adoption" Didn't we learn? https://t.co/Ahlr20Esa3
RT @kennethpayne01: AI fails at predicting real-world life outcomes -- Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass…
RT @JonathanMijs: Turns out sociologists *suck* at predicting life outcomes, but so are fancy algorithms. On the upside: life is too compl…
RT @pardoguerra: How many sociologists does it take to change a lightbulb? https://t.co/NTFfddqm6a
RT @JonathanMijs: Turns out sociologists *suck* at predicting life outcomes, but so are fancy algorithms. On the upside: life is too compl…
Tough words: "researchers must reconcile the idea that they understand life trajectories with the fact that none of the predictions were very accurate."
I've always preferred good explanations
Many researchers tried to predict 6 life outcomes: including a child’s GPA, and whether a family would be evicted, using variety of #machinelearning methods and a vast dataset collected over 15 yrs. And ... no one made very accurate predictions https://t.
RT @PNeuroscience: Weekend reading: using 1000s of variables collected over 15 years, 100s of researchers created predictive models to pred…
Weekend reading: using 1000s of variables collected over 15 years, 100s of researchers created predictive models to predict 6 life outcomes. Overall, models did a poor job of making accurate predictions, pointing to the challenges of building such models.
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration. Huge study with 13,000 data points on each of 4,000 families shows that most important outcomes are just not predictable with #MachineLearning https://t.co/zkFKsq2n6W http
Measuring the #predictability of #lifeoutcomes with a scientific mass collaboration | PNAS https://t.co/AtrAZQpNfq
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration | PNAS https://t.co/0ZyYtZ5993
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration https://t.co/iOxAxuTGQT
RT @deb_lavoy: 100s of researchers tried to predict 6 life outcomes: child's GPA, evictions, recidivism, etc. used machine-learning optimi…
100s of researchers tried to predict 6 life outcomes: child's GPA, evictions, recidivism, etc. used machine-learning optimized No one made very accurate predictions: https://t.co/avnIx7NJiE
RT @kennethpayne01: AI fails at predicting real-world life outcomes -- Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass…
AI fails at predicting real-world life outcomes -- Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration https://t.co/2BugS3BvrO
RT @JonathanMijs: Turns out sociologists *suck* at predicting life outcomes, but so are fancy algorithms. On the upside: life is too compl…
RT @duncanjwatts: Proud to be associated with this breakthrough collaborative effort, unprecedented (I believe) in the social sciences. Hug…
RT @MDRC_News: Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict 6 life outcomes, such as a child’s GPA and whether a family would be evicted fr…
RT @JonathanMijs: Turns out sociologists *suck* at predicting life outcomes, but so are fancy algorithms. On the upside: life is too compl…
Turns out sociologists *suck* at predicting life outcomes, but so are fancy algorithms. On the upside: life is too complex to perfectly predict, but if you want to give it a try, a simple & theoretically-informed model is probably the way to go. Pape
RT @chris_bail: 1/n Can machine learning solve social science problems? This unprecedented study led by @msalganik and dozens of co-authors…
RT @chris_bail: 1/n Can machine learning solve social science problems? This unprecedented study led by @msalganik and dozens of co-authors…
RT @chris_bail: 1/n Can machine learning solve social science problems? This unprecedented study led by @msalganik and dozens of co-authors…
Hundreds of researchers attempted to predict 6 life outcomes, such as a child’s GPA and whether a family would be evicted from their home, using machine learning. No one made very accurate predictions. by @CdiPorter (& many others!) via @PNASnews
Makine öğrenimi yöntemleri kullanılarak yapılan ilginç bir çalışma insan doğasının karmaşıklığını bir kez daha ortaya çıkarıyor. Yaşamın gidişatı ne kadar tahmin edilebilir? Araştırmacılar bu soru ile yola çıkmışlar. 15 yıldan uzun bir süredir sosyal.... h
Check it out! https://t.co/WLG9wtZT1x
Congratulations to Louis Raes & coauthors, led by @msalganik, on their recent publication in #PNAS: "Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration" Read it here: https://t.co/ChyrgUr3W6 #research #machinelearning
RT @elipariser: Predicting human life is hard: "Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction…
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration. https://t.co/040nwFeCWL
Predicting human life is hard: "Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model." https://t.co/3
Very cool use of social science. @EricKlinenberg, @elipariser
RT @domweinberg: Still digesting this fascinating paper. @ProfFilizGarip's PNAS review helps: failure to predict life outcomes (LOs) means…
Still digesting this fascinating paper. @ProfFilizGarip's PNAS review helps: failure to predict life outcomes (LOs) means a) our survey measures (& thus current theories) don't capture relevant dimensions of people’s lives, or b) LOs are too idiosyncra
Very cool study showing the limits of ml when is comes to predicting human behavior and success. #peoplearecomplicated https://t.co/faR1uZ8D0T
RT @duncanjwatts: Proud to be associated with this breakthrough collaborative effort, unprecedented (I believe) in the social sciences. Hug…
RT @duncanjwatts: Proud to be associated with this breakthrough collaborative effort, unprecedented (I believe) in the social sciences. Hug…
RT @amaatouq: Such an honor to play a small part in this truly inspirational collaborative effort (led by @msalganik @IanLundberg1 @alextki…
Machine learning in social science studies. Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration https://t.co/FxWp0rNYx3
RT @duncanjwatts: Proud to be associated with this breakthrough collaborative effort, unprecedented (I believe) in the social sciences. Hug…
RT @chris_bail: 1/n Can machine learning solve social science problems? This unprecedented study led by @msalganik and dozens of co-authors…
RT @duncanjwatts: Proud to be associated with this breakthrough collaborative effort, unprecedented (I believe) in the social sciences. Hug…
RT @chris_bail: 1/n Can machine learning solve social science problems? This unprecedented study led by @msalganik and dozens of co-authors…
RT @chris_bail: 1/n Can machine learning solve social science problems? This unprecedented study led by @msalganik and dozens of co-authors…
Predictability of life outcomes is challenging task. Make sure to read this phenomenal paper explaining observation during Fragile Families challenge "Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration" https://t.co/5EID2L1t
RT @InfoEcon: Fascinating study - important non-result result on predicting life trajectory https://t.co/HPCYi2PxtF
Fascinating study - important non-result result on predicting life trajectory
Very important piece of work! Replace 'life trajectories' in the sentence below with 'X', where X is any social phenomenon. "Additionally, researchers must reconcile the idea that they understand life trajectories with the fact that none of the prediction
RT @duncanjwatts: Proud to be associated with this breakthrough collaborative effort, unprecedented (I believe) in the social sciences. Hug…
RT @MoritzBuchi: "In many cases, simpler models outperformed more complicated techniques, and teams with more accurate scoring models came…
RT @chris_bail: 1/n Can machine learning solve social science problems? This unprecedented study led by @msalganik and dozens of co-authors…