Un articolo su tutti https://t.co/KTFsJzSX63
@EpiEllie From a modelling Point of View, I think I love this one. https://t.co/KTFsJzSX63
@gianlucac1 @giorgiogilestro @LucaFerrettiEvo @ThManfredi @mtizzoni @CT_Bergstrom @AurelianoStingi @Doom3Gloom @CrossWordsCW From what I recall, fitting to prevalence is kind of always the bad choice, see e.g. https://t.co/KTFsJAaxXB. Long story short, un
RT @rozeggo: @JLRohmann King et al 2015. https://t.co/sGDxOhWCtI
@JLRohmann King et al 2015. https://t.co/sGDxOhWCtI
least-squares curve-fitting models can be "a recipe for error & overconfidence"
models "too big to fail"? —> Nordhaus Nobel IAM work …brief https://t.co/amcwsz8Eh3 …+ peer reviewed details https://t.co/E9aCF7PAjv ht @AndreaSaltelli
@AndreaSaltelli @arnaldpuy @slopiano @RaziOptimus @H4wkm0th @delfina0304 @Delhaiza @IanScoones @ProfJohnKay @wjmd @Jeroen_vdSluijs @SFuntowicz @JeromeRavetz @interfluidity The IHME COVID model qualifies. The underlying Farr model was debunked by the AIDS e
@PienaarJm @Alex_Washburne @statsepi OK. I was responding to the tweet (without further context). I will take a look if I get time. I do have a strong feeling that Levitt's methods (fitting to cumulative case curves) are very likely to lead to overconfiden
Reviving a candid and helpful review of pitfalls in infectious disease modeling from Ebola that has important implications for COVID. https://t.co/PkZiKmw2wx
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @SignorErnesto: Esattamente quello che vi ho detto 10gg fa. Ovvero: https://t.co/zzSSrXYuTB 5\
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
@FreakX19 usual argument is that it amplifies model misspecification/induces correlated errors - see eg https://t.co/HYmvDAMRdt
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @Gabc91: 6/ Segundo, en estudios de simulación con datos de epidemias anteriores se demostró que la probabilidad que estos modelos deter…
Exponential regression to total cases can be unreliable. That’s why i’m not doing it anymore. Looking at the daily cases is better imo. At least to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions/measures made for further improvement.
#ESTADISTICA Una condición para un modelo estocástico es que E(X'u)=0. Pero el número de infectados es condicional al número de descartes, que a su vez es condicional al tiempo transcurrido. Por ello una regresión semi-logarítmica para todo el periódo se
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @lucasbrouwers: Een reminder voor iedereen die exponentiële plots van patiënten/sterfte op bierviltjes uittekent op basis van cumulatiev…
RT @lucasbrouwers: Een reminder voor iedereen die exponentiële plots van patiënten/sterfte op bierviltjes uittekent op basis van cumulatiev…
RT @lucasbrouwers: Een reminder voor iedereen die exponentiële plots van patiënten/sterfte op bierviltjes uittekent op basis van cumulatiev…
Een reminder voor iedereen die exponentiële plots van patiënten/sterfte op bierviltjes uittekent op basis van cumulatieve gegevens: kijk ook naar de ruwe data.
Esattamente quello che vi ho detto 10gg fa. Ovvero: https://t.co/zzSSrXYuTB 5\
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @GrahamHamish: Hot tip on reading #Covid_19 graphs. Look at the actual daily data not the curve. Curves can be misleading because most o…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
6/ Segundo, en estudios de simulación con datos de epidemias anteriores se demostró que la probabilidad que estos modelos determinísticos capturen los valores reales de la epidemia son muy bajos. Aquí la literatura para ambos puntos https://t.co/V7n4DWmTek
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
@junkcharts You retweeted https://t.co/cmV0MGPsjg I'm not convinced about https://t.co/R1cy9aNivG It says that the two figures are equivalent, but they don't show the same data! (look at 30/3), and that cumulative observations are not independent, but this
@GunnarBj Kolla nya fall på https://t.co/etMWllFpeP - fortf lite tidigt för att tillförlitligt anpassa en exponentialkurva. Vid anpassning till totala antalet döljs en del problem. Slår mig också att åtgärder kom då FHM menade att inhemsk smitta fick bety
RT @_luciarp_: un excelente hilo sobre errores comunes en la interpretación de valores epidemiológicos, muy relevante ahora que muches se a…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @_luciarp_: un excelente hilo sobre errores comunes en la interpretación de valores epidemiológicos, muy relevante ahora que muches se a…
un excelente hilo sobre errores comunes en la interpretación de valores epidemiológicos, muy relevante ahora que muches se asoman a esta ciencia. Acá 👇: por qué no hay que asustarse mirando datos acumulados que crecen y crecen. Si hay interés podemos tra
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
Als u geen epidemioloog bent en uzelf tegen denkfouten wil beschermen in deze #corona dagen dan is @AdamJKucharski een must-follow.
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
This is exactly the mistake the "omg china is making up the numbers look r-squared is 0.99 that never happens with real data!!1!!!" people were making in Jan-Feb.
@AleGiannini82 @stephensenn @paulpharoah Fitting stochastic models to overall trend, or better, new report data, can help ( https://t.co/HYmvDAMRdt ) but technically still misspecified & more expensive. We’ve been looking at compromise methods recently
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…