RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
RT @david_colquhoun: This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is…
This is an old trap in curve fitting. A cumulative curve looks deceptively smooth -because the data in each point is mostly the same as the data in the previous point. Thanks @AdamJKucharski
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
RT @AdamJKucharski: Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is…
Fitting curves to cumulative data can be misleading. The below two plots show the same data, but the cumulative data is smoother and gives a good exponential fit: the raw data tells a different story. https://t.co/hACDfFwem8 More on model fitting here: htt
RT @MOUGK: @MaxCRoser Thanks. Quick note - good to present daily case counts as well. Some information here as to why: https://t.co/puiPzkc…
@MaxCRoser Thanks. Quick note - good to present daily case counts as well. Some information here as to why: https://t.co/puiPzkcDuN
An article published following the West African Ebola outbreak on common challenges in real time modelling. https://t.co/g8MbrwAXYu Are stochastic models being circulated or developed for #nCoV2019?
RT @cmyeaton: Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/0OWasWVIle
Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/K8JCXHQVpi
RT @cmyeaton: Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/0OWasWVIle
RT @cmyeaton: Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/0OWasWVIle
RT @cmyeaton: Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/0OWasWVIle
RT @cmyeaton: Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/0OWasWVIle
RT @cmyeaton: Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/0OWasWVIle
RT @cmyeaton: Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/0OWasWVIle
RT @cmyeaton: Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/0OWasWVIle
RT @cmyeaton: Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/0OWasWVIle
Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola https://t.co/0OWasWVIle
@Andy2Dobson I would also draw attention to our paper with Aaron King that discussed the pitfalls of fitting deterministic models to cumulative data. https://t.co/R4WYYDzM97
@richardneher An important caution along these lines, from Jonathan King and colleagues in @RoyalSocBio: 'Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola' https://t.co/WsAJmTNmKT
RT @AdamJKucharski: Several important caveats are already acknowledged, but worth also noting that fitting to cumulative data can introduce…
Several important caveats are already acknowledged, but worth also noting that fitting to cumulative data can introduce further (and sometimes substantial) bias in estimates: https://t.co/udnGv86TFW
New outbreak of #Ebola in the DR Congo. Check out #ProcB paper on avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens like Ebola #openaccess https://t.co/VqEIMu0xGy https://t.co/Jkw4ffHBTz
RT @weitzlab: In JTB paper, we identify "compatible" epidemic curves given process noise, see King et al for related approach: https://t.c…
In JTB paper, we identify "compatible" epidemic curves given process noise, see King et al for related approach: https://t.co/4ygnsvfUBb
RT @m_hoehle: R U an epidemic modeller? Then you may want to read about errors you should avoid... http://t.co/Cy9gl8SuiH
R U an epidemic modeller? Then you may want to read about errors you should avoid... http://t.co/Cy9gl8SuiH
When modeling timeseries, fit to raw counts instead of cumulative in order to keep your errors independent http://t.co/6TlKDZHW3N
When modeling timeseries, fit to raw counts instead of cumulative in order to keep your errors independent http://t.co/6TlKDZHW3N
Avoidable errors in the modelling of #outbreaks of emerging #pathogens, with special reference to #Ebola http://t.co/AsGdUxDCzi
Avoidable errors in modelling emerging pathogens. Important, simple message: use stochastic models fit to raw data. http://t.co/4ILJc6qq3x
Short and sweet treatment of inferring disease dynamics w/ imperfect data. Go forth, and propagate your uncertainty: http://t.co/F4uswDzv4N
Short and sweet treatment of inferring disease dynamics w/ imperfect data. Go forth, and propagate your uncertainty: http://t.co/F4uswDzv4N
Short and sweet treatment of inferring disease dynamics w/ imperfect data. Go forth, and propagate your uncertainty: http://t.co/F4uswDzv4N
Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola http://t.co/FdvAl7s3w7
Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola http://t.co/FdvAl7s3w7
Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola http://t.co/FdvAl7s3w7
Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola http://t.co/FdvAl7s3w7
Useful study about uncertainty in the modeling of infectious disease outbreaks @RSocPublishing http://t.co/owMLM40Ycq
Useful study about uncertainty in the modeling of infectious disease outbreaks @RSocPublishing http://t.co/owMLM40Ycq
Useful study about uncertainty in the modeling of infectious disease outbreaks @RSocPublishing http://t.co/owMLM40Ycq
Useful study about uncertainty in the modeling of infectious disease outbreaks @RSocPublishing http://t.co/owMLM40Ycq
Here's how those math'al models of #ebolaoutbreak , predicting >1M victims, went so wrong (thankfully): http://t.co/3sh6ENDJct
Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. http://t.co/M1VOkPQkuN #ebola
How to avoid errors when modelling outbreaks of emerging pathogens http://t.co/sMWzNx6duM #publichealth #epidemiology
@cmyeaton just for reference and completeness, here's the paper that was referenced: http://t.co/ymBcn74Loj
Here's how those math'al models of #ebolaoutbreak , predicting >1M victims, went so wrong (thankfully): http://t.co/3sh6ENDJct
Here's how those math'al models of #ebolaoutbreak , predicting >1M victims, went so wrong (thankfully): http://t.co/3sh6ENDJct
Here's how those math'al models of #ebolaoutbreak , predicting >1M victims, went so wrong (thankfully): http://t.co/3sh6ENDJct
Here's how those math'al models of #ebolaoutbreak , predicting >1M victims, went so wrong (thankfully): http://t.co/3sh6ENDJct
Here's how those math'al models of #ebolaoutbreak , predicting >1M victims, went so wrong (thankfully): http://t.co/3sh6ENDJct
Predicting emerging epidemics like Ebola outbreak can be tricky: http://t.co/hRYuKhuasL
Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola http://t.co/xqflOz8MxN
Avoidable errors in the modeling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. (arXiv:1412.… http://t.co/zlVVpLdzTl
Useful thoughts about #EbolaModels from Aaron King and others http://t.co/vmKxQfY12P
Useful thoughts about #EbolaModels from Aaron King and others http://t.co/vmKxQfY12P
Useful thoughts about #EbolaModels from Aaron King and others http://t.co/vmKxQfY12P
Useful thoughts about #EbolaModels from Aaron King and others http://t.co/vmKxQfY12P
Useful thoughts about #EbolaModels from Aaron King and others http://t.co/vmKxQfY12P
Avoidable errors in the modeling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola http://t.co/9x3cw3Si1d #arxiv
Avoidable errors in the modeling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. http://t.co/6c6mGEAV51
Avoidable errors in the modeling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. http://t.co/6c6mGEAV51
Avoidable errors in the modeling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. http://t.co/6c6mGEAV51